In my work as a foresight practitioner, everyone’s favorite question to ask me is, “Can you predict the future? Tell me what’s coming.”

I get it! The term “foresight” often conjures up images of crystal balls and someone confidently declaring what’s going to happen next. I hate to ruin this for you, but even us certified foresight folks can’t predict the future 🙂 No one can.

And that’s because the future isn’t something that simply happens to us. Instead, it’s being actively shaped every day by the decisions we make (and don’t make), by the macro, meta, and micro forces at play, and by the unexpected ways seemingly unrelated forces collide and change what happens next.

But what we can do is get better at preparing for multiple possible outcomes — what we in the field refer to as futures — so that no matter which future arrives, we’re prepared to navigate it.

So today, let’s get to preparing! Today, I’m going to dive into three plays for you and your team to start practicing in Q1. Because as leaders, the goal isn’t to know exactly what’s coming. Instead, it’s about building organizations and teams that are adaptable, capable, and resilient enough to respond to whatever the future brings.

 

Play 1: Think Future Case, not Future State

Anyone else tired of the current-to-future state exercise? Yup, me too.

You know why you’re tired? Because the concept keeps you firmly rooted in yesterday. It assumes that current state — where you are today — should be the starting point for building what comes next. It keeps you anchored in the present by asking you to document, assess, and reflect on your current business model, technologies, strategies, frameworks, customers, organizational structure, assumptions, and so forth.

And then it suggests that these discoveries should become the foundation for determining where you go next.

The problem?

Most of current state was built for a world that no longer exists.

The macro has shifted. Innovation has accelerated. The way we work has changed. The competitive landscape has intensified. And yet we keep asking the business we have today to tell us what the business of tomorrow should look like.

So instead of rolling out the current-to-future state Q1 roadmap exercise, try replacing it with what we refer to at SQA Group as Future-Casing (dive deeper here).

With Future-Casing, we start by identifying the possible futures we want to prepare for — rather than anchoring ourselves in current state — and then work backward to determine what we need to do today to build for the world we may be heading into, not simply the one we’re living in now. For example:

• What if your customers expected an entirely different kind of experience?
• What if a capability you consider a competitive advantage became table stakes?
• What if AI and agents fundamentally changed how work gets done?
• What if the technology architecture you rely on is no longer the right foundation?
• What if the economics of your business model changed dramatically?

Whereas future state asks: How do we get from where we are today to where we want to be?

Future case asks: What might we need to become, and what would it take to get there?

One starts with what exists. The other starts with what’s possible.

Your Q1 play: Take one critical part of your business or function — your customer experience, operating model, technology estate, talent model, or revenue engine — and future-case it. Imagine what this part of your business could look like in a future that is meaningfully different from today. Then work backward.

 

Play 2: Prepare for the Collapse

I know, I know… you’re feeling the fear-mongering vibes. But bear with me; there is a reason I want you to sit with this for a bit.

As leaders, we tend to prepare for the future we most want: the one in which we realize growth, opportunity, innovation, and bets that deliver. But future-focused leaders know we also need to prepare for the things we hope never become true.

One practical place to start is with the Alternative Futures strategic foresight technique developed by Jim Dator. It invites us to consider four broad ways the future could unfold:

• Growth: Things are going well and the future looks like a bigger, more amplified version of the present
• Constraint: A new limitation, value, or purpose becomes a primary force shaping how we behave and organize
• Transformation: New technologies, business models, or social forces fundamentally change what becomes possible
• Collapse: Something catastrophic occurs or breaks, forcing us to operate in a future that looks dramatically different from the one we expected

While the first three might feel more natural for us to plan for, we must also be brave enough to consider, What happens if something we’re counting on stops being true?

For example… maybe proprietary advantage disappears; a platform you’ve built your business around changes the rules and locks you out of your own customers; pricing pressure erodes your margins beyond recovery.

When we run mini stress-tests like this, we start uncovering where our business and departments are most vulnerable, how quickly that vulnerability could compound, and what we can do now to create a hedging strategy. For example, that might mean developing an alternative technology path before you need it; diversifying a critical revenue stream. Building a new capability before an existing one becomes obsolete; or simply identifying the point at which a risk becomes too expensive to ignore.

Remember, the goal isn’t to predict the collapse. It’s to know what happens if it does and have a plan before you get there.

Your Q1 play: Pick one critical dependency, advantage, or assumption your business or function is relying on. Stress-test what happens if it disappears, changes, or degrades significantly. Identify where the business begins to break, how quickly that break could happen, and what you could do now to slow its impact or create an alternative path.

 

Play 3: Measure for the Future You’re Building

We have a funny habit in business. When something becomes important, we measure it. But when the world changes, we don’t always stop to ask whether we’re measuring the things that matter anymore

Likely, we can all agree that things like margin, revenue, utilization, customer acquisition, employee retention, pipeline, etc. are all important and necessary to measure. But what happens when the things that determine our future success aren’t the things we’ve historically needed to measure?

That’s the challenge facing us as leaders right now.

As AI changes how work gets done, as business models evolve, as customer expectations shift, and as innovation cycles continue to accelerate, we need to get better at measuring things we may not have had to measure before.

That might mean measuring what we like to refer to as Innovation Pipeline Conversion, ensuring that high-quality innovation shifts moves ideation to execution. It might mean measuring AI preparedness rather than simply tracking how many AI tools employees are using. It might mean measuring how quickly your organization can move from signal to decision when the answer isn’t obvious. Or measuring your ability to absorb ambiguity without bringing the entire organization to a screeching halt.

These aren’t replacements for the KPIs you already have. Think of them as the additive layer of intelligence.

Dive Deeper: Measure the Immeasurable

 

Because traditional metrics tend to tell us how well the business is performing. Future-focused metrics can also tell us whether the business is becoming capable of what comes next.

And that distinction matters.

You can be hitting your revenue targets while becoming dangerously dependent on one customer. You can be meeting productivity goals while failing to build the capabilities your organization will need next year. You can have a healthy innovation pipeline that produces absolutely nothing of value.

So instead of asking only, “What should we measure in 2027?” ask: “What will we need to know about ourselves to navigate the future we’re preparing for?”

Your Q1 play: Pick one critical objective you’re pursuing in 2027. Look at the metrics currently attached to it and ask: Are these telling us how well we’re performing today, or are they also giving us visibility into our readiness for what’s next? Keep what still matters. Retire what doesn’t. Then add one or two measures that give you visibility into a capability, behavior, or outcome you’ll need in the future.

 

The Future is about Preparedness

And maybe that’s the bigger point.

For years, career advancement hinged upon our ability to be certain, to know the exact play to call, and to have the answer. But now, the future of leadership is very much about choosing to believe that it’s within the throes of uncertainty where our most defining leadership moments are born.

That’s what these plays are really about.

• Future-case instead of simply moving from current to future state
• Prepare for the collapse instead of planning only for great future
• Measure for what you’re building instead of relying solely on yesterday’s scorecard

These plays allow you to experiment with uncertainty, with what could be, and with what you would do when and if a certain scenario comes true. It gets us ready for the game. Not because we are perfect, but because we are more prepared.

Ready to enact your next play and put into action? Click here to book your consult with our Foresight & Technology team and start building what comes next.